Extreme Weather: International Organizations warn of a historic humanitarian catastrophe in Ethiopia, Kenya, and Somalia

“We are on the verge of a historic humanitarian catastrophe in Ethiopia, Kenya, and Somalia,” says Guleid Artan, World Meteorological Organization

As the worst drought in more than 40 years is taking its toll in the Horn of Africa, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has stated that projections for October to December show an even bleaker scenario. Significant odds of drier-than-average conditions in the Horn of Africa for the coming rainy season have been reported.

“Unfortunately, our models show with a high degree of confidence that we are entering the fifth consecutive failed rainy season in the Horn of Africa,” said Guleid Artan, the head of the Climate Prediction and Applications Centre (ICPAC) which is the WMO’s regional climate center for East Africa. Already, extremely hot temperatures above 32 ℃ are expected over parts of central Sudan and Afar region in Ethiopia this week.

According to the forecast, wetter than usual conditions are expected over parts of southern Sudan, north-western South Sudan, western Ethiopia and northern Somalia. While drier than usual conditions predicted over Rwanda, Burundi, Uganda, South Sudan, southern to central Somalia, western Kenya, and central to southern Ethiopia.

Speaking on the sidelines of the recently concluded UNGA77, Artan urged international community must show solidarity with the Somali people by building resilience and enhancing response “as a matter of urgency”, he said.

Due to the conflict in Ukraine, food and gasoline costs have increased globally at the same time as the drought, with East Africa being the worst affected. The Horn of Africa is expected to experience food stress or a food crisis, emergency, or famine by July, the World Bank reported in June, affecting an estimated 66.4 million people. New estimations based on the most recent forecasts are expected.

“This scenario is causing the WHO great concern. Carla Drysdale, the spokeswoman for the World Health Organization, said at a press conference in Geneva noting that it causes many families to resort to desperate methods to survive.